Crypto trader and consultant Michaël van de Poppe believes bitcoin will surge to $300,000 during this bull cycle. He shares 4 key chart signals he’s watching right now.

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Michaël van de Poppe
Michaël van de Poppe said bitcoin could hit $300,000 in the current bull cycle.

  • Michaël van de Poppe founded the crypto consultancy Eight Global.
  • He expects bitcoin’s bull cycle to last 6 to 9 months, with prices peaking at $300,000.
  • Van de Poppe broke down the 4 signals he watches to make price predictions.
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

Michaël van de Poppe is confident that bitcoin’s current bull cycle has room to run, but questioned one recent high-profile price prediction.

“I don’t believe Cathie Wood’s $500,000 prediction, it’s kind of ridiculous,” he told Insider in a recent interview. “$500,000 would put bitcoin close to gold in market cap, it just doesn’t make sense.”

At this week’s SALT Conference, star stock picker Wood said she expects bitcoin to hit $500,000 in five years. She also told CNBC anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin that her firm Ark Invest is strengthening its commitment to ether.

Van de Poppe has traded crypto for four years, and recently founded the consultancy and educational platform Eight Global. He leads a 12-person operation based in Amsterdam.

“One of my best friends showed me Coinmarketcap in 2017,” he said. “I started to trade crypto, made a ton of mistakes, but I was interested in bitcoin and what it actually represented.”

“When I read the bitcoin white paper I thought ‘this could be big’, and I went down the rabbit hole,” he added.

Bitcoin’s price has been volatile in 2021, surging from $32,000 to an all-time high of almost $64,000 in April. It’s since fluctuated between $40,000 and $50,000.

Van de Poppe told Insider why he thinks bitcoin will hit $300,000 in the first half of 2022, how long he thinks the bull cycle can last, and which price signals he watches.

Bitcoin to $300,000, not $500,000

Van de Poppe said he based his $300,000 price prediction on the anonymous analyst Plan B’s stock-to-flow model, which compares the amount of bitcoin in circulation against its rate of production.

“Plan B’s stock-to-flow model has $250,000 to $300,000 as the top,” he told Insider. “The current market capitalization is around $2.3 trillion, but in this situation it would surge to over $10 trillion, comparable to the dot-com bubble.”

Van de Poppe also said that the stock-to-flow model indicates that the bull market will last between six and nine more months. However, he warned that this bull run would differ from others.

Institutional investors’ increased involvement, combined with bitcoin’s 65% price surge this year, will increase the role of external factors and reduce the impact of ‘halvenings’, according to van de Poppe. A halvening refers to when the reward for mining bitcoin is cut in half, occurring roughly once every four years.

“We’ve got the four-year cycle, the halvening period, but the larger the market becomes the less impact the halvening has on the price,” van de Poppe told Insider. “On the other hand, the impact of macroeconomics will be heavier as the market becomes larger – the Fed or the European Central Bank could both start to impact the market.”

But while van de Poppe remains bullish on bitcoin, he questioned Wood’s $500,000 price prediction.

“Five years is so far away from now,” he said. “$500,000 is like a bubble valuation, it just doesn’t make sense.”

He added, “Yes, the market will always overshoot the top, but $500,000? I don’t believe that.”

Cathie Wood Ark Invest
At the SALT conference, Cathie Wood said that she thinks bitcoin’s price will surge to $500,000.

Price signals to watch

Having trained as an economist, van de Poppe’s edge comes in analyzing crypto prices, rather than making technical evaluations of a coin’s potential applications. He told Insider that he looks at four metrics in particular.

“My core business is in price action,” he said. “It’s the easiest approach you can have.”

Price action is the movement of a security’s price plotted over time. Traders develop price action charts to spot and interpret trends; van de Poppe posts a significant amount of this sort of technical analysis on his 400,000-follower Twitter account.

van de Poppe said he combined this quantitative analysis with constant analysis of market sentiment.

“That’s a great trick – combining price levels and sentiment,” he said.

“If bitcoin’s at $30,000 and people think $20,000 is guaranteed so they are looking to sell, that’s giving you a massive buy signal,” he added, describing a contrarian investing strategy.

Van de Poppe also told Insider that he’s working on incorporating on-chain analysis into his research.

This is when price analysts use a cryptoassets’s public ledger to build and examine a financial data set. On-chain analysts try to determine a blockchain’s fundamental, rather than speculative, value.

Lastly, van de Poppe said he had been keeping an eye on chart patterns, which can help bitcoin investors to spot a ‘golden cross‘ or a ‘death cross‘. A golden cross is when bitcoin’s 50-day moving price average crosses over its 200-day moving price average; a death cross is when the opposite happens.

Some capital managers argue that the bitcoin golden cross occurred on September 14, as the short-term price average surpassed the long-term price average. However, van de Poppe warned investors not to be too bullish on this price signal.

“The golden cross is a signal that we might be back into a boom cycle, but it’s never guaranteed,” he said. “But the fact some traders use it makes it important to have some understanding.”

“Earlier this year, we had a death cross, but the market went back up,” he added. “I don’t use the crosses too much because it can be quite difficult to build a strategy around them.”

Whatever strategy he settles on, it’s clear that van de Poppe plans to remain involved in the crypto space for a long time.

“Crypto is my life, it’s my passion,” he told Insider. “My friends don’t call me Michaël anymore, they call me crypto Michaël.”